Will I probably die if the big earthquake happens in Tokyo?

Question

Apparently there's an 80 percent chance that a big earthquake will hit Tokyo within the next 30 years.

Edit: not sure why all of you are hating on me like that. I don't wish anyone to die and I hope all of you live if there actually is a big earthquake in Japan

karenschlick · Answer

honestly you're way more likely to die crossing the street in shibuya than from a quake here. the 80% thing gets thrown around a lot but it's a probability range not a guarantee. just make sure your apartment has a gas shutoff valve and a pair of shoes under your bed for glass

kersten · Answer

the 80% stat is for a specific type of quake under the capital, not just any random one. the real risk is if you're in a shitty old rental in shitamachi or near the bay where liquefaction turns the ground to soup. most of central tokyo's modern towers are fine, they sway like crazy but dont fall down.

your biggest practical concern is getting home if the trains stop. keep a map of your area in your bag and know which parks are designated evacuation spots, not just the big ones like yoyogi but the little local ones too. also learn where your ward's disaster supply depot is, they stock food and water for like 3 days after a big one.

if you're really worried, the tokyo metropolitan government has an english disaster preparedness book you can grab at any ward office for free. it's way more useful than stressing over percentages.

yuinaka · Answer

honestly the 80% thing gets thrown around a lot but it's a bit misleading. that's the probability of a magnitude 7 or higher quake hitting somewhere in the greater Tokyo area within 30 years, not a specific date. most buildings here are built to modern seismic codes so collapse is pretty unlikely unless you're in an old wooden house from the 80s

if you're worried, the real danger is usually fires from gas lines and stuff breaking after the shaking stops. keep a pair of sturdy shoes by your bed, have some water and snacks stashed, and know where your nearest 避難所 (evacuation shelter) is. you'll prob be fine

karsta · Answer

honestly the 80% thing gets thrown around a lot but it's a probability estimate not a guarantee. and even if it happens, most deaths in earthquakes come from old wooden buildings collapsing or fires - if you're not living in a pre-1981 shitamachi apartment you're prob fine. my place in nakano is a 2005 build and my building manager showed me the seismic dampers once, they're legit

anke · Answer

ngl the 80% thing is just for a big one not necessarily "the big one" that levels everything. worst case scenario you'd prob get some cracked windows and stuff falls off shelves but modern buildings are designed to sway not collapse. just make sure your phone is charged and you know where your nearest jichikai disaster kit is stored in your building

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